Fundamental Research

Rolling in the Deep

July 2026

As the industry exhausts its highest-quality core inventory, this paper examines how deep, high-pressure, high-temperature development has become economically competitive and where the next wave of value creation is already taking shape. Drawing on our proprietary 30,000-well capex database, we show how deep F&D costs have collapsed nearly 80% since 2010, transforming a resource base the industry had written off into inventory that competes with the best shallow rock in North America.

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